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Breast Cancer Incidence Rate Projected to Stay the Same through 2016

September 27, 2011

The incidence of breast cancer will remain stable through 2016, according to a study published this month in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute.  Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data from 1980-2008, researchers at the National Cancer Institute accounted for missing or unknown estrogen receptor (ER) status and calculated past breast cancer incidence rates overall and by ER status, while also projecting rates to 2016. 

In their analysis, Dr. William Anderson and colleagues analyzed SEER data from 588, 720 invasive female breast cancer patients with 471, 336 ,233 woman-years of follow-up.  They used an imputation method to correct for missing ER status, and calculated age-standardized incidence rates, estimated annual percentage changes, and projections from age–period–cohort models. 

Breast cancer incidence in the United States increased until around the year 2000, and then decreased until stabilizing near 200/100,000 woman-years by 2007-2008.  This decrease is mostly a reflection of a brief decrease in the incidence of ER-positive cancers and a more steady decrease in ER-negative cancers.  The researchers predict that in the future, though the overall rates will remain stable, the rates of ER-positive breast cancers will increase 5.3% (95% confidence interval = 5.2% to 5.4%), whereas rates of ER-negative breast cancers will decrease by 11.4% (95% confidence interval = 11.3% to 11.6%) from 2009-2016.